Electric vehicles (EVs) are on the rise. Just look outside. You’ll probably see a Tesla or even a Rivian. Recently, new, more ecological cars have started invading even EV-averse roads of Alberta! And yet, some feel that while one revolution has just begun, another is right around the corner. Its name? Hydrogen.
Progress can’t stand still. That’s true, but hydrogen? Will this supposedly magic solution make cars more eco-friendly and still have all the best qualities of gas vehicles?
Your skepticism is quite understandable — and shared by many.
However, giants like Honda and Toyota are convinced [1] [2] that something better than EVs is on the horizon. So what if Honda’s only hydrogen car was discontinued years ago due to virtually no demand? [1]
Meanwhile, Toyota is still fighting the class action lawsuit launched by Toyota Mirai owners about the lack of infrastructure [3]. Yet, they’re showcasing a new FCEV prototype called the Hilux. The company has been one of the most vocal supporters of the technology for a while, having worked on FCEVs as far back as 1992. [2]
Why Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars?
Hydrogen is the most basic and lightest molecule. But what makes it any good for fueling a car?
FCEVs, or Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, use a fuel cell to generate energy for an onboard electric motor. Oxygen from the air and compressed hydrogen are used to create power.
Hydrogen produces no CO2 emissions when combusted. Unlike traditional engines, FCEVs are more fuel-efficient and emit only water vapour and warm air, eliminating toxic tailpipe emissions.
The heating value is three (3) times more than oil, but production costs are also three (3) times higher.
There’s no need to wait until the car is charged like an EV. Refuelling is more like gas cars, which entices those unable to charge their vehicle overnight.
The major advantage of FCEVs over EVs lies in their potential for greater range. FCEVs generally offer more distance per refuelling than BEVs do per charge. However, most BEVs comfortably meet the regular range demands of most drivers. Lately, longer journeys are increasingly feasible for BEV users.
Comparing Costs – Evs, FCEVs, and Traditional Gasoline Vehicles
For now, hydrogen fuel is quite costly, too, compared to other energy sources. Estimates for California in 2023 showed:
A Tesla Model 3 costs around $0.04 per mile to run.
A Toyota Mirai, an FCEV, costs about $0.21 per mile.
The FCEV is even more expensive than a gasoline car, which averages $0.15 per mile.
To mitigate the high cost of fuel, Honda, Hyundai, and Toyota have provided free hydrogen fuel to their lessees and buyers for a limited time. However, once these promotions expire, the cost burden falls back on the driver. Hydrogen fuel would need to be priced closer to $3 per kilogram to compete with BEVs. [6]
Unlike gasoline cars, with over 100,000 fuel stations in the US alone, hydrogen vehicle drivers rely entirely on a consistent gas supply and a functioning high-pressure fueling station. It’s a chicken and an egg situation — and the first adapters of FCEVs already have their share of horror stories after an explosion cut off the supply to nine of the San Francisco Bay Area’s 11 hydrogen stations in 2019, as diesel trucks had to deliver tanks of compressed hydrogen from Southern California overnight. [7]
By mid-2022, the total number of hydrogen-powered vehicles on US roads remained at or under 17,000 — a puny number compared to BEVs. [7]
“What I have in my mind is that the EV era comes first, and the next phase is fuel-cell cars. The fuel cell era might take some more time,”
said Katsushi Inoue, CEO of Honda India.
Honda, just like Toyota, has nothing to boast about. The Clarity Fuel Cell, their first foray into the FCEV space, sold 1,900 units and was discontinued soon after. [1] After that, the company pivoted to commercial vehicles. According to Inoue, that is where the hydrogen revolution is bound to make waves.
He’s not the only one who thinks that. The German manufacturer Bosch has disclosed plans to release its first hydrogen internal combustion engine for trucks within this year. [4]
Hydrogen May Be the Future — But Probably Not for Personal Transportation
The market for FCEVs is growing. The global market size was USD 1,236.7 million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 21,446.11 million by 2032. That’s a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% [5]
So, all signs point to FCEVs being viable for everything but personal transportation. The high cost and limited availability of refuelling stations make hydrogen impractical for personal use. However, it is more practical for buses, trains and semi-trucks, where electrification presents greater challenges. It also shows promise for air transportation since battery weight is a significant barrier and will probably remain so.
Some cities are starting to share the optimism for hydrogen. On August 13, 2024, the City of Detroit’s Office of Mobility Innovation unveiled a white paper on leveraging hydrogen to achieve transportation decarbonization. With the upcoming deployment of a “Truck Stop of the Future,” the city is setting the foundation for a hydrogen-powered clean transportation future. [8]
Despite the media’s attempt to portray BEVs and FCEVs as competitors, they can — and probably should — coexist, catering to completely different consumers. Both can potentially help the environment since neither depends on fossil fuels.
References
https://www.prescouter.com/2024/07/toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-hilux-prototype/
https://driving.ca/auto-news/driver-info/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-class-action-lawsuit
https://www.businessresearchinsights.com/market-reports/fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-market-100145
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a41103863/hydrogen-cars-fcev/
https://detroitmi.gov/government/mayors-office/office-mobility-innovation/detroits-hydrogen-future
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